The predictive power of stock market’s expectations volatility: A financial synchronization phenomenon

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dc.contributor.authorMagner, Nicoláses
dc.contributor.authorLavin, Jaime F.es
dc.contributor.authorValle, Mauricioes
dc.contributor.authorHardy, Nicoláses
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-21T12:34:39Z
dc.date.available2021-12-21T12:34:39Z
dc.date.issued2021-05-20
dc.description.abstractWe explore the use of implied volatility indices as a tool for estimate changes in the synchronization of stock markets. Specifically, we assess the implied stock market’s volatility indices’ predictive power on synchronizing global equity indices returns. We built the correlation network of 26 stock indices and implemented in-sample and out-of-sample tests to evaluate the predictive power of VIX, VSTOXX, and VXJ implied volatility indices. To measure markets’ synchronization, we use the Minimum Spanning Tree length and the length of the Planar Maximally Filtered Graph. Our results indicate a high predictive power of all the volatility indices, both individually and together, though the VIX predominates over the evaluated options. We find that an increase in the markets’ volatility expectations, captured by the implied volatility indices, is a good Granger predictor of an increase in the synchronization of returns in the following month. Estimating, monitoring, and predicting returns’ synchronization is essential for investment decision-making, especially for diversification strategies and regulating financial systems.en
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad Adolfo Ibáñez, under the grant Internal Funds for Research 1154-2020 (Business School - Jaime F. Lavin).es
dc.identifier.citationPlos one, Vol. 16, N° 5, e0250846 (2021) p. 1-21es
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250846
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1362-2776
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3866-0197es
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12254/2170
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherPublic Library of Sciencees
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 Chile (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 CL)en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/cl/en
dc.titleThe predictive power of stock market’s expectations volatility: A financial synchronization phenomenonen
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