Prospective economic evaluation of a predictive artificial intelligence model for sepsis: Effects on hospital costs and return on investment

Resumen: Early sepsis detection is essential for improving outcomes and reducing costs, but traditional rule-based systems have limited accuracy and real-world evidence for machine-learning alternatives remains scarce. In this context, BIAlert-Sepsis predicts sepsis risk within 24 hours using historical hospital data, and evaluating its implementation in a tertiary hospital setting provides an opportunity to quantify its clinical benefits and economic value. We conducted a retrospective quasi-experimental before–after study including all septic patients admitted from January 2011 to June 2024. The baseline period (Jan 2011 – Mar 2019) was compared with the AI implementation period (Apr 2019 – June 2024), excluding the COVID-19 interval. Outcomes were assessed using adjusted generalized linear models and interrupted time series regression. A hospital-perspective economic evaluation incorporated implementation and maintenance costs, and a 5-year model estimated net benefit and return on investment (ROI), supported by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A total of 8,039 patients were included (6,168 baseline period; 1,871 AI period). Demographic and clinical characteristics were comparable across periods. During the AI period, ICU admissions decreased from 34.4% to 30.4% (adjusted p = 0.001), accompanied by significant reductions of 0.35 ICU days and 0.59 ward days per patient. Mean admission costs declined from 26,517€ to 24,630€ (adjusted p = 0.005). After covariate adjustment, AI implementation was associated with a 26.1–31.1% reduction in mean admission costs across GLM models. Interrupted time series analysis identified a modest immediate cost level change after AI implementation and a larger sustained decline during the post-COVID period. The 5-year economic model projected a cumulative discounted net benefit of 3.55M€ and a 528% ROI. BIAlert-Sepsis was associated with favourable clinical outcomes and lower costs, with economic modelling suggesting early breakeven and positive financial returns

Lugar de Publicación

Estados Unidos

Citación

PLOS Global Public Health, Vol. 6, N° 8 (2026) 1-17

Palabras clave

Sepsis, Artificial intelligence, Economic evaluation

Licencia

Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 Chile (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 CL)

Licencia URL

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/cl/

Colecciones

Artículos de Revistas

Página completa del ítem